Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.464437 0.535629 0.612600 0.701818 0.802191 0.911424 1.039094
2025-06-01 0.370224 0.465806 0.576938 0.714974 0.881048 1.073598 1.312859
2025-06-08 0.295293 0.403903 0.539196 0.718412 0.947659 1.228981 1.597958
2025-06-15 0.249834 0.370185 0.530213 0.755270 1.059731 1.452920 1.993898
2025-06-22 0.194665 0.313582 0.482729 0.735502 1.097105 1.588101 2.295724
2025-06-29 0.154991 0.271194 0.447737 0.727413 1.149188 1.749257 2.651743
2025-07-06 0.122392 0.232820 0.411994 0.712567 1.189574 1.899079 3.009845
2025-07-13 0.103937 0.213653 0.402737 0.736752 1.291411 2.149239 3.539806
2025-07-20 0.085392 0.190147 0.382122 0.739293 1.359620 2.356321 4.027410
2025-07-27 0.072472 0.174213 0.371821 0.757667 1.456009 2.617648 4.625304
2025-08-03 0.061879 0.160389 0.362853 0.776934 1.556238 2.895383 5.276053
2025-08-10 0.048955 0.138034 0.332894 0.752020 1.574606 3.037783 5.717406
2025-08-17 0.037305 0.115535 0.298809 0.715102 1.569540 3.145788 6.123630
2025-08-24 0.030236 0.102203 0.281758 0.710216 1.625454 3.369054 6.753875
2025-08-31 0.024203 0.089556 0.263420 0.699355 1.668197 3.573132 7.370425
2025-09-07 0.020939 0.083872 0.260842 0.723693 1.787259 3.934291 8.309170
2025-09-14 0.016161 0.071440 0.237816 0.695710 1.790649 4.071019 8.838965
2025-09-21 0.012826 0.062386 0.221537 0.681042 1.821233 4.264924 9.496047
2025-09-28 0.010044 0.053974 0.204742 0.661639 1.838029 4.431882 10.114414
2025-10-05 0.008668 0.050548 0.202214 0.679928 1.946301 4.801276 11.169449
2025-10-12 0.007127 0.045572 0.193329 0.678824 2.007133 5.074166 12.048343
2025-10-19 0.006107 0.042476 0.189949 0.693072 2.108466 5.445613 13.162197
2025-10-26 0.005259 0.039755 0.187153 0.708623 2.215271 5.838936 14.352015